An Operational Model for Support of Integrated Watershed Management

This paper presents a computer simulation-based methodology for operational support of integrated water resources management. The methodology is based on the systems approach, and use of feedback to capture physical and socio-economic processes occurring within a watershed. The approach integrates well established simulation models of physical processes with simulation models that describe socio-economic processes. The proposed methodology is illustrated by the evaluation of risk and vulnerability to changing climatic and socio-economic conditions in the Upper Thames watershed (south-western Ontario, Canada).The model results indicate that flooding in the watershed will be more severe as a result of climate change, while low flows are expected to remain at their current level. The most significant socio-economic factor in the Upper Thames watershed is water availability, shown to become under climate change a limiting factor for future growth and development.