| Abstract: | A spatial distribution model has been developed to predict the pattern of stormwater catchment facilities in developing urban areas. The model has been validated through comparison of predicted results with historical data in Guelph, Canada, using nearest neighbour analysis. The validated model has been applied to developing urban-rural fringe lands in Guelph to illustrate land use patterns likely to occur under different scenarios. Simulations of various scenarios for incorporating stormwater catchment facilities into greenways have been tested with the model and the resultant land use patterns compared with the status quo, through measures of landscape ecological integrity such as connectivity and porosity. The model was applied to an area on the edge of Guelph scheduled for development. The predicted land use patterns of various planning scenarios were generated and analysed. The results demonstrated that landscape integrity could be increased, urban wildlife habitat enhanced, and opportunities for residential non-consumptive wildlife recreation improved through integration of the evolving ‘blue-green’ open space provided by urban stormwater management facilities into existing greenways. |
