| 航材消耗广义加权函数比例平均组合预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 万玉成, 何亚群, 盛昭瀚. 航材消耗广义加权函数比例平均组合预测模型. 自动化学报, 2004, 30(4): 619-623. |
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| 作者姓名： | 万玉成 何亚群 盛昭瀚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.东南大学经济管理学院,南京;;;2.空军后勤学院三系,徐州;;;3.南京大学管理科学与工程研究院,南京 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出一种新的组合预测模型--广义加权函数比例平均组合预测模型,并利用二次规划算法给出其加权系数的参数估计方法.同时,针对航材消耗的季节性与波动性特点,建立了航材消耗预测的灰色系统模型与神经网络模型,最后建立了基于灰色系统与神经网络的航材消耗广义加权函数比例平均组合预测模型并以实例说明了其预测效果.
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| 关 键 词： | 组合预测 函数比例平均 航材消耗 灰色系统 神经网络 |
| 收稿时间： | 2002-12-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002-12-02 |
Generalized Weighted Functional Proportional Mean Combining Forecasting Model of Air Material Consumption |
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| WAN Yu-Cheng, HE Ya-Qun, SHENG Zhao-Han. Generalized Weighted Functional Proportional Mean Combining Forecasting Model of Air Material Consumption. ACTA AUTOMATICA SINICA, 2004, 30(4): 619-623. |
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| Authors: | WAN Yu-Cheng HE Ya-Qun SHENG Zhao-Han |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Economics and Management,Southeast University,Nanjing;No.3 Department,Air Force Logistics College.Xuzhou;Graduate School of Management.Science and Engineering,Nanjing University,Nanjing |
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| Abstract: | A new kind of combining forecasting model based on the generalized weighted functional proportional mean is presented. And the parameter estimation method of its weighting coefficients is given by using the algorithm of quadratic programming. Mean-while, the grey system forecasting model and the neural network forecasting model of air material consumption are proposed for its seasonal and fluctuating characteristics. Finally, the generalized weighted functional proportional mean combining forecasting model of air material consumption based on grey system and neural network is proposed and its efficiency is demonstrated by an example. |
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| Keywords: | Combining forecasting functional proportional mean air material con-sumption grey system neural network |
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