| 灰色马尔柯夫链方法在设备故障预测中的应用初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 王清晓 陈家锭. 灰色马尔柯夫链方法在设备故障预测中的应用初探[J]. 机械科学与技术, 1997, 16(3): 491-495 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王清晓 陈家锭 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]广西大学 [2]西北工业大学 |
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| 摘 要： | 将灰色马尔柯夫预测模型应用于设备运行状态的预测，实践证明，这种预测方法兼有灰色ＧＭ（１，１）预测和马尔柯夫概率矩阵预测的优点，尤其适用于随机波动性较大的数据列的预测。这一应用拓广了灰色预测的应用范围。对轴承振动的预测结果表明，该预测模型的预测精度是令人满意的。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色马尔柯夫预测模型 灰色GM（1.1）预测 马尔柯夫概率矩阵预测 |
Application of Grey Markov Forecasting Model to Machine ′s Fault Forecast |
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| Wang Qingxiao Chen Jiading. Application of Grey Markov Forecasting Model to Machine ′s Fault Forecast[J]. Mechanical Science and Technology for Aerospace Engineering, 1997, 16(3): 491-495 |
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| Authors: | Wang Qingxiao Chen Jiading |
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| Affiliation: | Wang Qingxiao 1 Chen Jiading |
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| Abstract: | WT5”BZ〗This paper presents a Grey Markov forecasting model which is initially and successfully applied to the prediction of operational conditions of machines.The results show that the method has the merits of both grey GM(1,1) forecast and Markov probability matrix forecast, and would expand the applicative scope of grey forecast. In particular,the Grey Markov forecasting model is suited for data sequences with heavy random fluctuation.The forecasted results of bearing′s vibration show that the forecasting precision of the model is satisfactory. |
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| Keywords: | WT5”BZ〗Grey Markov forecasting model Grey GM(1 1) forecast Markov probability matrix forecast |
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