Systems-Analysis Assessment of the Effectiveness of Measures for Decreasing the Proliferation Risk of Fissioning Materials

Approaches to nonproliferation analysis from the standpoint of the potential dange of fissioning materials are demonstrated for two problems: the proliferation risk in a long-time global strategy for growth of nuclear fuel cycle and the choice of an efficient strategy for the utilization of weapons and power plutonium in Russia.Comparing open and closed nuclear cycles with multiple recycling of plutonium in fast reactors according to the criterion of potential proliferation risk (exposure risk) shows that the present methodological approach does not confirm the idea that proliferation is of a greater danger in a closed cycle, which has become the foundation for long-time nuclear policy of the US.