开采沉陷动态参数预计的三次指数平滑法

在我国，概率积分法是应用最多的一种开采沉陷预计方法．该方法中的预计参数在不同采动程度下是变化的．能否准确获知动态参数的变化规律将决定着开采沉陷的预计精度．为较好地解决这一问题，引入了一种动态参数预计的新方法，即三次指数平滑法．应用此方法对实测资料进行了预计和比较，结果表明，各预计参数的平均相对误差都小于4％．由此可见，该方法对开采沉陷的预测具有一定的应用价值．

Prediction of Dynamic Mining Subsidence Parameters by Exponential Smooth

In our country, the probability integration model is most applied as a predicting method in mining subsidence. Predicting parameters of this are variational in different mining degree and the predicting precision for mining subsidence depends on variational laws of dynamic parameters. In order to solve this, a new method for the prediction of dynamic parameters which is exponential smoothing is introduced. By calculating, a field prediction result shows that the average relative errors for every predicting parameter are less than 4 percent. Thus, the method has a certain application value for mining subsidence.