基于马尔科夫模型的污染物质量浓度变化规律

采用马尔科夫模型模拟调水过程中太浦河练塘大桥断面处污染物质量浓度变化过程，并通过构建转移矩阵，确定进步度，对污染物质量浓度的变化情况进行动态评价，研究污染物质量浓度变化规律。结果表明，调水指标的进步度计算结果整体为正，但局部地区出现负值；随着调水量的增加，水体自净能力增强，各指标的进步度普遍提高；调水试验结束进入水资源常规调度期间，水质长时间保持良好。本研究旨在为制定河湖连通调水方案提供借鉴。

Variation of pollutant concentration based on Markov model

In this study , the Markov model was used to simulate the variation of the pollutant concentration at the Liantang Bridge section during the process of water diversion from the Yangtze River to Taihu Lake .Through the construction of the transfer matrix , the degree of progress was determined , and the dynamic variation of the pollutant concentration was evaluated .The results show that the calculated degree of progress of the water diversion indicator was positive , with negative values in some areas;with the increase of diverted water , the self-purification capacity of contaminants improved , and the degrees of progress of all indicators increased; and the water quality has been high for a long time during the water resources regular scheduling since the trial water diversion was completed.This study aims to provide references for the establishment of water diversion schemes for connected rivers and lakes .