基于物元可拓模型的电力通信网风险评估

为了有效掌握电力通信网的风险状况并指导运维工作，需要剖析电力通信网的风险影响因素并对其风险进行评估。通过系统分析电力通信网风险影响因素，建立了三级递阶层次结构的电力通信网风险评估指标体系。基于物元可拓理论及层次分析法构建了电力通信网风险定量评估模型。利用该模型对某电力通信网风险进行评估，通过评估得到了该通信网各评估指标及网络整体风险等级。评估结果对于全面标识电力通信网运行过程中的脆弱环节，指导运维工作的有效开展，促进电力通信网的差异化管理和科学决策具有积极指导意义。

Risk evaluation for electric power communication network based on matter-element extensible model

It is essential to analyze the risk influential factors and evaluate the operational risk status for power communication network so as to identify the risk of the power communication network and guide the operation and maintenance work. First, based on the systematic analysis of the risk influential factors of power communication network, the risk evaluation index system with three-level hierarchical structure is established. Then, the quantitative risk evaluation model for power communication network is constructed based on matter-element extensible model and analytical hierarchy process theory. Through applying the model to a certain practical power communication network, the risk level for each influential factor and the whole network can be obtained. The evaluation results can provide positive and instructional significance for generally identifying the vulnerabilities in power communication network operation process, guiding the operation and maintenance work, and promoting the differentiated management and scientific decision-making for power communication network. This work is supported by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 13MS64) and Science and Technology Project of State Grid Corporation of China (No. XXB51201501250).