An empirical study of users’ hype cycle based on search traffic: the case study on hybrid cars |
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Authors: | Seung-Pyo Jun |
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Affiliation: | (1) Department of Industrial Information Analysis, Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information, 66, Hoegi-ro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, 130-741, Korea |
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Abstract: | Many forms of technology cycle models have been developed and utilized to identify new/convergent technologies and forecast
social changes, and among these, the technology hype cycle introduced by Gartner has become established as an effective method
that is widely utilized in the field. Despite the popularity of this commonly deployed model, however, the currently existing
research literature fails to provide sufficient consideration of its theoretical frame or its empirical verification. This
paper presents a new method for the empirical measurement of this hype cycle model. In particular, it presents a method for
measuring the hype of the users rather than the hype cycle generated by research activities or by the media by means of analyzing
the hype cycle using search traffic analysis. The analytical results derived from the case study of hybrid automobiles empirically
demonstrated that following the introductory stage and the early growth stage of the life cycle, the positive hype curve and
the negative hype curve, the representative figures of the hype cycle, were present in the bell curve for the users’ search
behavior. Based on this finding, this paper proposes a new method for measuring the users’ expectation and suggests a new
direction for future research that enables the forecasting of promising technologies and technological opportunities in linkage
with the conventional technology life cycle model. In particular, by interpreting the empirical results using the consumer
behavior model and the adoption model, this study empirically demonstrates that the characteristics of each user category
can be identified through differences in the hype cycle in the process of the diffusion of new technological products discussed
in the past. |
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