中国对“一带一路”沿线国家投资与碳排放关系研究

随着极端天气事件频发，采取有力行动应对气候变化达成全球共识。“一带一路”沿线国家发展方式大多粗放，面临着较大的碳减排压力。本文采用面板数据模型，分析了中国投资对“一带一路”沿线不同收入水平国家CO2排放的影响。结果发现，中国投资对“一带一路”沿线高收入国家具有一定的碳减排效应，对中高等收入国家的碳减排效应较弱，而对中低等收入国家产生显著的碳增排效应。除已经实现碳达峰的高收入国家外，“一带一路”沿线国家CO2排放不符合库兹涅茨曲线，经济增长和人口增加均是导致CO2排放上升的因素，而能源效率改善有利于降低CO2排放。因此，建议建立多边合作机制，加强对“一带一路”沿线国家，尤其是尚未实现碳达峰的中低等收入国家的绿色低碳投资。

The relationship between Chinese investment and CO2 emissions in the Belt and Road countries

As extreme weather events occur more frequently, there is a global consensus to take strong action to combat climate change. Most of the Belt and Road countries are under great pressure to reduce CO2 emissions due to the extensive economic development. Based on the panel data model, this paper analyzes the impact of Chinese investment on CO2 emissions in the Belt and Road countries with different income levels. The results show that Chinese investment reduces CO2 emissions in high-income countries, and has a weak impact on CO2 emissions in upper-middle-income countries. However, Chinese investment significantly increases CO2 emissions in lower-middle-income countries. Except for high-income countries that have achieved the carbon peak goal, there is no Kuznets Curve in the Belt and Road countries. Economic growth and population lead to an increase in CO2 emissions, while the improvement of energy efficiency contributes to carbon emission reduction. It is suggested to strengthen green and low-carbon investment in lower-middle-income countries that have not yet achieved the carbon peak goal. Establishing a multilateral cooperation mechanism is an effective approach.