蒋家沟泥石流年输沙量的拓扑预测

通过搜集整理并作图分析云南东川蒋家沟泥石流观测资料时发现,蒋家沟历年泥石流年输沙量变动幅度大且变动频繁,用一般拟合方法预测效果不理想。拓扑预测是一种预测未来发展趋势的方法,尤其对随时间有较大变化的对象,预测效果较好。本文试采用拓扑预测的方法对蒋家沟历年泥石流年输沙量的资料进行分析,对泥石流年输沙量进行了预测。

Topological forecast of annual sediment yield of debris flow along the Jiangjia Ravine

Annual sediment yield of debris flow is an important physical index,which reflects both the forming station,carrying ability and potential danger degree.However, the annual sediment yield of debris-flow along the Jiangjia Ravine has been changing year by year with much scope and high frequency. Fortunately,topological forecast is such an ideal method,which is good at dealing with the data with irregular changes.So the authors applied this method and combined the developing trend of the Jiangjia Ravine to forecast the annual sediment yield.Based on the detailed material from the debris flow observation station in the Jiangjia Ravine,there will be severe stage of debris flow occurring after the year 2011.This research is much significance of preventing,mitigating debris flow disaster and the use of mountain land.