中国交通运输部门中长期能源发展与碳排放情景设计及其结果分析(一)

随着我国经济的持续增长及人民生活水平的提高,随着汽车逐步进入家庭,我国交通运输部门的能源需求将会以较高的速度增长,也将对整个国家能源供需和环境保护产生重要影响。本研究试图在对中国社会经济发展以及能源预测和碳排放情景相关的研究回顾与分析评价研讨的基础上,探讨可能影响中国交通运输能源发展与碳排放的主要不确定因素,并借助相关的模型分析工具,分析比较中国未来交通用能和碳排放的发展趋势,提出相应的政策建议。

Scenario Design and Results Analysis on Energy Development and Carbon Emission in Medium and Long Rang from Transportation Sector in China

With the sustainable development of China’ s economy, the improvement of people’ s living standards and with the anticipated booming for private ownership of cars, energy demand from transportation sector is expected to increase at a relatively high speed in the future China. It can be expected that the transport sector will have a significant impact on future energy balance as well as environment. This research is initiated to review, analyze and discuss the relevant studies regarding social and economic development, energy and carbon emission projection in China, in order to identify the main uncertainties for China’ s energy related carbon emissions from transport development. The relevant model will be also adopted to compare the development trend of future transport energy demand & carbon emission under different designed cases. Finally, policy recommendations are also proposed based on the above mentioned analysis.