基于讨价还价模型的水权动态转换价格

为寻求水市场条件下,水权交易的合理均衡水权动态转换价格,根据博弈论和市场经济学原理,结合讨价还价中具有破裂风险和贴现率的特性,建立了水权动态转换价格的讨价还价模型.模型以初始水权价格为基础,考虑影响水权动态转换价格的因素,计算出水权动态转换的基础价格作为讨价还价模型中的最低价,综合外围因素的变化,提出变动最高价区间作为水权动态转换价格的上限,分析相应的均衡水权动态转换价格.模型考虑了贴现率、协商破裂风险等主观概率对水权转化价格的影响,从水权供应方和需求方的自身利益入手,模拟了水权转化中讨价还价的动态过程,为水权交易的实施提供决策支持.

Dynamic water rights conversion price based on bargaining model

In order to seek a reasonable and balanced water rights conversion price under the condition of water rights trading market,a bargaining model about water rights dynamic conversion price is established considering the breakdown risk and discount rate characteristics in the bargaining theory based on game theory and economic principles of market economy.On the basis of initial price of water rights and the impact factors of the water rights conversion,the conversion basic price calculated by the model is looked on as the lowest price of the bargaining model.Then,the alterable highest prices based on various outer factors are as the upper limit to analyze dynamic equilibrium conversion prices of water rights.The model takes the discount rate and breakdown risk into account in the calculation of dynamic water rights conversion price,which embodies self-interest of water rights supply and demand,so as to give support to water rights transaction decision-making.