WRF模式在风电场风速预测中的应用

准确的风电场风速预测是风电场安全稳定运行的基本保障.从风速预测的准确性和效率两方面分析利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)中尺度数值预报模式时不同嵌套网格分辨率对风电场风速预测的影响.在此基础上,对宁夏某风电场进行提前102h的逐时风速预测并与实测资料进行对比.结果表明:随着网格分辨率的提高,风电场风速预测精度略有提高,但计算时间变长.兼顾预测精度和效率,建议使用3层网格.WRF模式能够较好地捕捉风速随时间的变化趋势,有效增加预测时效,使风电场风速预测可以提前到2～4d,为风电场的运行和控制提供依据.

Application of WRF model to wind speed forecasting in wind power farms

The accurate wind speed forecasting guarantees operation safety and stability of the wind power farm.This paper analyzed the influence of different nesting grid resolution on wind speed forecasting results in terms of accuracy and efficiency utilizing the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model which is a mesoscale numerical model.The hourly wind speed forscasting with 102 hours ahead of some wind power farm in Ningxia was simulated.The results indicate that the precision is slightly improved with the increase of nesting grid resolution.Considering both accuracy and efficiency,it’s suggested to use three-level grid.Comparative results between simulations and actual data demonstrate that the forecasting wind speeds are in good agreement with measurement values with accordant changing trend.In addition,the WRF model can increase forecasting time effectively to 2-4 days ahead,so as to give effective reference to operation and control of wind power farms.