预测油气资源Pareto模型的建立、修正与应用——兼评我国现行的油田储量规模排序法

油气资源评价的储量规模排序法,在我国的区带、凹陷或盆地的资源预测中得到比较广泛的应用。然而,迄今为止,尚没有一个能够描述储量规模排序法的理论模型,致使在实际应用时产生某些疑怀和困扰。事实上,由意大利学者Pareto于1897年提出的分布,以及于1962年由美国学者Mandlebrot定名的Pareto分布或Pareto定律,则是油气田储量规模排序法的理论基础。基于Pareto和Mandlebrot的研究成果,经变换推导后,得到了适用于我国的储量规模排序法的预测模型。文中将此模型称为Pareto模型,并根据在实际应用中存在的问题,又提出了修正的Pareto模型。实例应用表明,修正的Pareto模型更为实用可靠。

Establishment,Modification,and Application of Pareto Model for Forecasting Oil and Gas resources——Review of Existing Rank Order Method of Accumulation Size in Oilfields

The rank order method of accumulation size in oilfields has been widely applied to resources forecast of zones,sags,and basins in China. However,since there is not a theoretical model for illustrating the rank order method,so some doubts and puzzles are caused in its practical application. Essentially,the distribution proposed by Pareto in 1897 and the Pareto distribution or Pareto law named by Mandlebrot from America in 1962 are the theoretical basis for the method. Based on the research results of Pareto ...