不确定条件下日前购电计划的风险评估方法

随着电力市场体制改革的不断深入和全面实施,电网企业在市场环境下面临的不确定性风险日益突出。为了在保障电网安全运行的同时提高企业效益,日前购电计划的风险评估就显得尤为重要。在概率性负荷预测的基础上,提出了对既定的日前购电计划在不确定条件下进行风险评估的方法。该方法通过预估或模拟实时市场的电价波动情况,分别从全局及局部两个角度对购电计划面临的风险进行分析和评估,进而对多个可行的购电计划进行风险意义上的排序和筛选。结合IEEE24节点系统对该方法的有效性和实用性进行了验证。提出的方法更加深刻地揭示了既定购电计划的经济性、风险性及对不确定条件的适应性,为日前购电计划的风险评估提供了一种可行的新思路。

Risk assessment method for the day-ahead power purchase plan under the uncertain conditions

With the deepening and carrying out of power market structural reform, the uncertain risks to the grid utility in the marketing environment become more and more outstanding. The risk assessment for the day-ahead power purchase plan is especially important to increase power enterprise profit with the electric network operating safety in the same time. Based on the probabilistic load forecasting result, a risk assessment method for the power purchase plan under uncertain conditions is put forward. By pre-estimating or simulating the fluctuation of the electricity price in the real-time market, the method analyzes and evaluates the risk of power-purchasing plan in global and local perspectives, and then several feasible power purchase plans can be sorted and screened in the sense of risk. With the standard system data, the availability and practicability of the proposed method are verified. The proposed method completely reveals the economy, risk and adaptability to uncertain conditions of the established power purchase plan, and provides a new feasible solution for the risk assessment of day-ahead power purchase plan.