弹道导弹最大射程评定的Bayes方法

为了解决Bayes方法对导弹武器最大射程进行评估时先验信息的来源不确定且可信度不高的问题,对弹道导弹推力偏差进行了分析.在考虑影响导弹射击精度主要误差源的基础上,利用干扰弹道仿真产生了导弹最大射程.在考虑先验信息可信度的情况下,对导弹武器的最大射程进行了评估,提高了Bayes估计的可信度.仿真结果表明,该方法用于先验信息样本容量较大或先验信息可靠性较低的情况,可增强Bayes评估的稳健性.

Bayesian Method for Evaluating Ballistic Missile's Maximum Range

To solve the problem of the indefinite source and the low reliability of prior information during the evaluation process of missile's maximum range by Bayesian method,the thrust and the deviation of ballistic missile were analyzed.The maximum range was calculated by interference trajectory,taking the main error into consideration.Considering the reliability of prior information,the maximum range of missile was evaluated,and the reliability of Bayesian estimation was improved.The simulation results show that...