| 旱灾风险评估与调控关键技术研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 金菊良,宋占智,崔毅,周玉良,蒋尚明,何君.旱灾风险评估与调控关键技术研究进展[J].水利学报,2016,47(3):398-412. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金菊良 宋占智 崔毅 周玉良 蒋尚明 何君 |
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| 作者单位： | 合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院, 安徽合肥 230009;合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所, 安徽合肥 230009,合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院, 安徽合肥 230009;合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所, 安徽合肥 230009,合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院, 安徽合肥 230009;合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所, 安徽合肥 230009,合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院, 安徽合肥 230009;合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所, 安徽合肥 230009,水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院水利水资源安徽省重点实验室, 安徽合肥 230088,中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室, 北京 100101 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部重大基建前期项目(水规计[2011]412号);国家自然科学基金项目(51409001,51409002,51579059,51579060) |
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| 摘 要： | 旱灾风险评估与调控能揭示旱灾风险系统各要素相互作用机制,是旱灾风险管理的基础和前提,可为制定旱灾风险防控措施提供科学依据。为此,本文系统论述了旱灾风险的基本概念、识别、评估和调控4方面关键技术的研究进展以及存在的问题,阐明了旱灾风险及旱灾风险系统的定义,归纳了旱灾风险评估的3类主要方法,简述了旱灾风险调控的主要内容,并探讨了未来旱灾风险评估与调控关键技术的主要发展方向。
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| 关 键 词： | 旱灾风险系统 旱灾风险识别 旱灾风险评估 旱灾风险调控 情景模拟分析 链式传递 |
| 收稿时间： | 9/7/2015 12:00:00 AM |
Research progress on the key technologies of drought risk assessment and control |
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| JIN Juliang,SONG Zhanzhi,CUI Yi,ZHOU Yuliang,JIANG Shangming and HE Jun.Research progress on the key technologies of drought risk assessment and control[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2016,47(3):398-412. |
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| Authors: | JIN Juliang SONG Zhanzhi CUI Yi ZHOU Yuliang JIANG Shangming and HE Jun |
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| Affiliation: | School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China,School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China,School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China,School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China,Water Resources Research Institute of Anhui Province and Huaihe River Commission, MWR, Hefei 230088, China and Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China |
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| Abstract: | As the basis of drought risk management, drought risk assessment and control can reveal the ele-ments interaction mechanism of drought risk system, which can provide scientific basis for drought risk pre-vention and control measures. In this paper, the key technologies and their problems of drought risk assess-ment and control such as basic concepts, recognition, assessment and control of drought disaster risk were systematically described, definitions of drought risk and drought risk system were put forward, three typical main methods of drought disaster risk assessment were summarized, the main contents of drought disaster risk control were briefly described, and the main development trend of these key technologies of drought risk assessment and control were discussed. |
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| Keywords: | drought risk system recognition of drought disaster risk assessment of drought disaster risk control of drought disaster risk scenario simulation analysis chain transfer |
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