基于风险评估的电缆线路检修策略

摘要：根据电缆线路的检修特点，提出基于风险评估的电缆线路检修策略，同时考虑了电缆线路故障发生的概率性和故障后果的严重性。首先依据实时信息对电缆线路单元进行评价，根据层次分析法计算电缆线路整体健康指数，据此推算出电缆线路故障概率；通过电缆线路自身资产损失风险和运行损失风险确定电缆线路综合风险；最后根据电缆线路综合风险所处风险等级决策电缆线路检修策略，以上饶城市配电网为例验证了该方法的可行性。

Cable Line Maintenance Strategy Based on Risk Assessment

ABSTRACT: According to the characteristics of cable maintenance, Proposed a maintenance strategy based on risk assessment, taking the probability and seriousness of the cable failure into account. First, evaluate the cable line unit based on real-time information, and using the analytical hierarchy to calculate health index and the probability of failure of cable lines, and then calculate cable lines'' integrated risk based on the loss of assets risk and operating loss risk; Finally, make decisions about cable lines'' maintenance strategy according to the level of integrated risk , and take the urban distribution network of Shangrao as an example to verify feasibility of the method.