基于云模型的自然灾害灾情等级评估

针对目前灾情评估指标不够全面系统,未综合反映社会、经济、环境等各方面影响,且评价方法中权重和等级评估标准的确定主观性强的问题,从灾情属性、社会影响、经济影响和自然环境影响4方面归纳整理出一套较为全面的灾害灾情评估指标体系,提出基于云模型的权重确定方法和基于云模型的灾害灾情等级评估模型,并将其应用于6次典型暴雨洪涝灾害灾情评估。结果表明:基于云模型的权重确定方法能客观地综合所有专家的评价信息,基于云模型的灾害灾情等级评估模型能有依据地得出灾情等级评估标准并客观合理地确定等级。

Study of grade assessment of natural disaster situation based on cloud model

The current disaster assessment indicators are not comprehensive and systematic enough to evaluate the impacts of social, economic and environmental aspects, and the determination of index weight and grade assessment standards is subjective. As a result, a comprehensive evaluation index system of natural disaster grade assessment is concluded covering social, economic and environmental aspects. A cloud-based weight determination method and a grade assessment model of disaster situation are proposed and have been applied to six typical rainstorm and flood events. The results of analysis and evaluation show that the weight determination based on the cloud model can integrate all the assessing information from experts objectively. The assessment method can achieve evidence-based standard of disaster grades and determine the grade level objectively and reasonably.