济宁市水资源承载能力评价方法的应用与对比

针对目前水资源承载能力内涵界定尚不统一,评价手段多样的现状,采用投影寻踪法和行业技术大纲方法对济宁市11个县市区的水资源承载能力进行评价,并与其他学者利用主成分分析法的评价结果进行对比。结果表明:投影寻踪法评价结果为还有一定潜力,行业技术大纲方法评价结果为超载,主成分分析法评价结果为还有开发潜力。3种方法评价结果存在差异的原因包括指标选取依据不同、指标权重确定方法不同以及数据年份不同。影响济宁市水资源承载能力强弱的主要因素是人均水资源占有量和地下水开发利用程度。

Application and comparison of water resources carrying capacity evaluation methods in Jining City

Aiming at the present situation that the definition of water resources carrying capacity is not uniform and the evaluation methods are various, the projection pursuit method and the industry technical outline method are used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of 11 counties and cities in Jining City, and the results are compared with those of other scholars using the principal component analysis method. The results show that the evaluation result of the projection pursuit method is certain potential, the evaluation result of the industry technical outline method is overloaded, and the evaluation result of the principal component analysis method is certain development potential. The reasons for the differences among the three methods include the differences in the selection of indicators, the weight of indicators and the data year. The main factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity in Jining City are the per capita water resources occupancy and the degree of groundwater exploitation and utilization.