综放开采顶煤冒放性识别的未确知测度模型及工程应用

针对综放开采中顶煤冒放性等级评价中许多不确定性影响因素，借鉴未确知测度理论，将顶煤冒放性与其影响因素之间的关系作为未确知系统，提出综放开采中顶煤冒放性识别的未确知测度模型。分析了影响综放开采中顶煤冒放性诱因，选取煤层埋深H、煤体单轴抗压强度σc、煤层节理裂隙的发育程度η、煤层厚度M、煤层中夹矸层厚度mj和直接顶充填系数k等6个实测指标作为顶煤冒放性识别的主要影响因子，以16个放顶煤工作面为例，构造了适于顶煤冒放性评价指标的测度函数，同时引入信息熵理论确定各指标的权重，采用置信度识别准则对其冒放性等级进行识别。为进一步考察该模型的有效性与实用性，运用已建立的未确知测度评估模型应用到4组综采工作面顶煤冒放性评估中。研究表明，该评价模型结果符合工程实际情况，与模糊聚类和BP 神经网络方法一致，能解决综放开采中顶煤冒放性等级评价中诸多因素不确定性问题，可考虑在实际工程中进行推广。

Cavability identification of top coal in fully mechanized caving through unascertained measure approach and its engineering application

Due to the uncertainty of influencing factors in evaluating the top coal cavibility for fully mechanized caving，taking the top coal cavibility and its impact on the relationship between factors as unascertained system，an unascertained measure(UM) model for top coal cavibility identification was established on the basis of the uncertainty mathmatics theory.Six indexes，i.e.，the seam depth H，coal uniaxial compressive strength σc，the degree of the coal seam jointed development η，seam thickness M，seam folder gangue layer thickness mj and coefficient of direct top filling k，were used as the discriminating factors on the basis of analysis the impact of top coal cavibility.Taking the 16 groups of caving working face as an example，the index weights of the factors were calculated by entropy theory，and credible degree identification(CDI) criteria were established according to the UM theory.The result of the top coal cavibility evaluation was obtained by the CDI criteria.Moreover，using the UM method to the four groups of mechanized mining face top coal cavibility assessment in order to study the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model.The results show that the UM model assessment results agree well with the engineering actual situation，and are consistent with those of the fuzzy synthetic evaluation and BP neural network method.The engineering practices indicate that it can complete the top coal cavibility for fully mechanized caving assessment systematically and scientifically without any assumption by the proposed model，which can be applied to practical engineering.