A linguistic cellular automata simulation approach for sustainable land development in a fast growing region

Rapid rural-urban land conversion as a consequence of economic growth has raised serious concerns over sustainable development. There is an urgent need to understand what possible urban scenarios can result from different policies towards land conversions. In many ways, the question resembles the exploration of a self-organising phenomenon which generates macroscopic patterns upon microscopic and local decision-making processes. In this paper a linguistic simulation approach has been developed. As a prototype, the study integrates cellular automata (CA) with heuristically-defined transition rules to simulate land use conversions in the rural-urban fringe of a fast growing metropolis. Fuzzy set theory has been applied to capture uncoordinated land development process. An innovative feature of the integrated approach lies in its definition of transition rules through a “natural language interface”, thus being more realistic and transparent. The model can simulate development scenarios in a gaming style. By providing a series of scenarios, it reveals risks inherent in certain development strategies which may jeopardize sustainable development of the city.