基于DSR模型的秦淮河流域防洪能力变化及成因分析

为深入探讨流域防洪能力变化及其原因，基于驱动力-状态-响应(DSR)模型构建流域防洪能力变化分析模型，从驱动力、状态和响应3个方面对秦淮河流域社会经济发展、防洪能力变化和水利工程建设投资进行评价和分析。结果表明：秦淮河流域城市化建设在2010年之前发展迅速，2010年后发展速度放缓；人类经济建设的不断发展对流域防洪能力造成了一定破坏，但水利工程建设的不断投入使流域防洪能力得以提升并得到基本保障；河网调蓄能力仍持续下降，中小河道建设和管理维护工作仍需着重加强。

Analysis of flood control capacity changes and causes of Qinhuai River Basin based on DSR model

To explore the flood control capacity changes and causes of watersheds, an analysis model of watershed flood control capacity was constructed based on the driving force-state-response (DSR) model. The social and economic development, flood control capacity change and water conservancy construction investment in the Qinhuai River Basin were evaluated and analyzed from the three aspects of driving force, state and response. The results show that the rapid development of urbanization construction in the Qinhuai River Basin was mainly concentrated before 2010, and the development slowed down after 2010. The continuous development of human economic construction caused some damages to the flood control capacity of the basin. However,due to the continuous investment in water conservancy engineering construction, the flood control capacity of the basin was basically improved and guaranteed. The storage capacity of the river network still continues to decline, and the construction and management of small and medium-sized rivers remains to be further reinforced.