A fuzzy reasoning and fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process based approach to the process of railway risk information: A railway risk management system |
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Authors: | Min An Yao Chen Chris J. Baker |
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Affiliation: | School of Civil Engineering, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK |
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Abstract: | Risk management is becoming increasingly important for railway companies in order to safeguard their passengers and employees while improving safety and reducing maintenance costs. However, in many circumstances, the application of probabilistic risk analysis tools may not give satisfactory results because the risk data are incomplete or there is a high level of uncertainty involved in the risk data. This article presents the development of a risk management system for railway risk analysis using fuzzy reasoning approach and fuzzy analytical hierarchy decision making process. In the system, fuzzy reasoning approach (FRA) is employed to estimate the risk level of each hazardous event in terms of failure frequency, consequence severity and consequence probability. This allows imprecision or approximate information in the risk analysis process. Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (fuzzy-AHP) technique is then incorporated into the risk model to use its advantage in determining the relative importance of the risk contributions so that the risk assessment can be progressed from hazardous event level to hazard group level and finally to railway system level. This risk assessment system can evaluate both qualitative and quantitative risk data and information associated with a railway system effectively and efficiently, which will provide railway risk analysts, managers and engineers with a method and tool to improve their safety management of railway systems and set safety standards. A case study on risk assessment of shunting at Hammersmith depot is used to illustrate the application of the proposed risk assessment system. |
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Keywords: | ALARP, As low as reasonably practicable CP, Consequence probability CS, Consequence severity DHG, Derailment hazard group EFA, Equivalent fatality analysis EHG, Electrocution hazard group EI, Expert index FAHP, Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process FEM, Fuzzy Estimation Module FF, Failure frequency FHG, Falls from height hazard group FO, Frequency of occurrence FRA, Fuzzy reasoning approach FMEA, Failure mode and effect analysis Fuzzy-AHP, Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process FWM, Fuzzy weighting module HAZOP, Hazard and Operability MF, Membership function ODBC, Open database connectivity OM, Output module PRA, Probabilistic risk analysis RISRAS, Railway intelligent safety risk assessment system RL, Risk level RTM, Risk Tree Module SHG, Slips/trips hazard group TfHG, Train fire hazard group TsHG, Train strikes person hazard group UFN, Uniform format number WF, Weight factor |
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