中小河流洪水风险分析中的洪水演进计算研究

鉴于我国中小河流常因测站不足,缺乏实测水文资料,导致精细的设计洪水推求和洪水演进计算难以进行,进而影响河流洪水风险分析准确性的问题,采用推理公式分区组合的方法推求各断面设计洪水,并将其作为MIKE 11模型的输入洪水过程,进行河道内洪水演进模拟计算。以大连市复州河下游段为例,模拟计算了主河道设计洪水演进过程。结果表明,该方法可动态演示洪水演进过程,并能给出洪水风险分析的主要指标,与现场实测流量和洪痕水位相比,模拟精度良好,对中小河流洪水风险分析及防洪管理具有一定的参考和指导意义。

Flood Routing Calculation of Medium and Small Rivers in Flood Risk Analysis

In china, because of lacking observed hydrological data, the design flood and the precise flood routing of the medium and small rivers is difficult to calculate. As a result, it affects the accuracy of flood risk analysis. In view of this problem, this article adopts the Liaoning rational formula to calculate the design flood of each section. And then it simulates flood routing in the watercourse by using MIKE 11 model. Taking the lower reaches of Fuzhou River in Dalian City as an example, the results show that the method could demonstrate the process of flood routing dynamically with a high accuracy, which has been proved by comparing the results with the data of historical floods. Therefore, it can be some degree of guide and reference of the flood risk analysis and flood management on the medium and small rivers.