| 基于数据分层预处理的短期风功率预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 章伟,邓院昌,魏桢.基于数据分层预处理的短期风功率预测研究[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(11):245-248. |
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| 作者姓名： | 章伟 邓院昌 魏桢 |
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| 作者单位： | 中山大学 工学院, 广东 广州 510006;中山大学 工学院, 广东 广州 510006;中山大学 工学院, 广东 广州 510006 |
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| 摘 要： | 良好的风速和风功率预测是解决风电并网问题的关键。针对样本数据中的无效点影响风功率建模问题，采用分层统计法对风功率进行统计分析后获得了风速—功率关系带，对功率进行修正，根据修正后的数据应用灰色—马尔可夫链模型进行预测，并与比恩法和经验公式法进行对比分析。结果表明，风功率分层统计法可有效地消除坏点数据，预测精度高。
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| 关 键 词： | 数据分层 预处理 风功率预测 分层统计法 灰色—马尔可夫链模型 |
Short-term Wind Power Prediction Based on Data Stratification retreatment |
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| ZHANG Wei,DENG Yuanchang and WEI Zhen.Short-term Wind Power Prediction Based on Data Stratification retreatment[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2013,31(11):245-248. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Wei DENG Yuanchang and WEI Zhen |
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| Affiliation: | School of Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China;School of Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China;School of Engineering, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China |
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| Abstract: | Wind speed and wind power prediction are the keys to solve the wind power connected-grid problem. The invalid sample data affects the wind power model. To get the relationships between wind speed and wind power, layered statistics method is adopted to modify the wind power curve. Combination of Grey model and Markov model is used to predict wind power with corrected data. Compared with BIN method and empirical formula method, the results show that the layered statistics method can eliminate the invalid data effectively and improve the accuracy of the prediction. |
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| Keywords: | data stratification pretreatment wind power prediction layered statistics grey-Markov chain model |
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