| 基于信息扩散技术的面雨量集成预报方法 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘〓静,叶金印,罗〓静,邱旭敏.基于信息扩散技术的面雨量集成预报方法[J].水电能源科学,2013,31(8):12-15. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘〓静 叶金印 罗〓静 邱旭敏 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 淮河流域气象中心， 安徽 蚌埠 233040;淮河流域气象中心， 安徽 蚌埠 233040;淮河流域气象中心， 安徽 蚌埠 233040;淮河流域气象中心， 安徽 蚌埠 233040 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 安徽省气象局预报员专项基金资助项目（AHYBY201203）；公益性行业(气象)科研专项基金资助项目(GYHY201006037)；淮河流域气象开放研究基金资助项目(HRM201103) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 准确的面雨量预报可有效提高洪水预报的精度和延长洪水预见期，是提高预报准确率的有效途径。基于信息扩散技术，以淮河流域面雨量预报集成为例，提出一种集成应用方案，利用淮河流域2012年6~8月的ECMWF、JMA面雨量预报资料进行集成预报试验。应用试验表明，集成预报（CFCST）性能总体上优于单个预报成员（ECMWF、JMA）。
|
| 关 键 词： | 信息扩散 模糊关系矩阵 面雨量 集成预报 淮河流域 |
Consensus Forecast Method of Areal Rainfall Based on Information Diffusion Technique |
| |
| LIU Jing,YE Jinyin,LUO Jing and QIU Xumin.Consensus Forecast Method of Areal Rainfall Based on Information Diffusion Technique[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2013,31(8):12-15. |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Jing YE Jinyin LUO Jing and QIU Xumin |
| |
| Affiliation: | Huaihe River Basin Meteorological Center, Bengbu 233040, China;Huaihe River Basin Meteorological Center, Bengbu 233040, China;Huaihe River Basin Meteorological Center, Bengbu 233040, China;Huaihe River Basin Meteorological Center, Bengbu 233040, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Accurate areal rainfall forecast can effectively improve the accuracy of flood forecasting and extend the flood forecast period. Consensus forecast is an effective way to improve the accuracy of forecasting areal rainfall. Consensus forecast method of areal rainfall is proposed based on the information diffusion technique. The consensus forecast is conducted by utilizing the numerical precipitation forecast of ECMWF and JMA in the period 6 8, 2012 in Huaihe river basin. The results indicate that the performance of areal rainfall consensus forecast (CFCST) is overall better than that of single method (ECMWF, JMA). |
| |
| Keywords: | information diffusion fuzzy relation matrix areal rainfall consensus forecast Huaihe river basin |
|
