核电厂地震概率风险评估研究综述

随着概率地震危险性分析与分解理论与应用的发展，场地相关谱生成理论也得到了不断发展，基于中国场地相关谱的核工程等重要基础设施地震易损性与风险分析研究还较为匮乏。该文总结了标量型中国概率地震危险性分析与分解理论方法，提出了向量型中国概率地震危险性分析与分解、条件型中国概率地震危险性分析基本原理，给出了基于中国概率地震危险性分析与分解的我国场地一致危险谱、条件均值谱、广义条件均值谱和条件一致危险谱生成理论和方法，总结了基于中国场地相关谱的核电厂结构地震易损性与风险分析理论基础，以我国某核电厂厂址及核电厂安全壳结构为算例，生成算例厂址场地相关谱，计算不同场地相关谱条件下核电厂安全壳结构地震易损性与风险。分析结果表明：不同场地相关谱条件下，我国核电厂安全壳结构安全裕量都较大；基于条件均值谱计算得到的风险结果偏于不保守。

Review of seismic probability risk assessment of nuclear power plants

With the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and disaggregation theories and their application, the theories of site-specific spectra have been continuously developed. However, there is still a lack of research on the impact of seismic fragility and risk analysis of nuclear engineering and other important infrastructure based on site-specific spectra in China. In this article, the scalar Chinese probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and disaggregation theories have been summarized, and the theories of vector Chinese probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and disaggregation and conditional Chinese probabilistic seismic hazard analysis have been provided. The generated theories of uniform hazard spectrum, conditional mean spectrum, generalized conditional mean spectrum and conditional uniform hazard spectrum for the sites located in China based on the Chinese probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and disaggregation theories have been presented, and the theoretical bases of seismic fragility and risk of nuclear power plant structures based on Chinese site-specific spectra have been summarized. Finally, by taking a nuclear power plant site and a nuclear power plant containment as an example, the site-specific spectra have been generated and the seismic fragility and risk of a nuclear power plant containment under different site-specific spectra have been obtained. The analysis results show that the safety margin of a containment of a nuclear power plant located in China is large under the conditions of different site-specific spectra and the seismic risk values based on conditional mean spectra are not conservative.