尾矿库溃坝风险指标体系及风险评价模型研究

尾矿库风险评价应研究坝及其附属构筑物的安全状况，评价尾矿库运行期的安全等级。因此，加强尾矿库风险管理，建立尾矿库溃坝风险指标体系和风险评价模型，对于减少和防止尾矿库溃坝事故的发生，确保尾矿库的安全运行，使之更好地为矿山安全生产服务，为国民经济健康持续快速发展服务等方面都具有重要意义。本文基于理论分析、相关性计算方法，建立了尾矿库溃坝风险指标体系，并应用多层模糊模式识别理论建立了尾矿库溃坝风险评价模型，并提出了尾矿库运行期安全等级的划分方法。建立的风险指标体系和风险评价模型，可同国家安全监管总局尾矿库普查和管理系统结合，用于尾矿库运行期安全等级的划分。

Research on the risk index system and evaluation model of tailing ponds failing

Safety assessment on tailing reservoir should be based on safety conditions of dam and its affiliated construction and the assessment on safety state of the tailing reservoir. Therefore, it is imperative to strength risk management of the tailing ponds and establish tailing dam failing risk index system and risk evaluation model, which will play a significant role in reducing and preventing the occurrence of tailing dam failing accident, ensuring safe operation of the tailing ponds, making them to better serve safe production of the mines as well as healthy, steady and rapid development of the national economy, etc. Based on theoretical analysis and correlation analysis, this article established a dam failing risk index system for the tailing ponds, worked out a model of risk evaluation of tailing reservoir based on fuzzy theory and proposed the partition method of safety ranks in the operation of tailing ponds. The index system and model could be used for the partition of the tailing ponds in China combining with the investigation and management system of tailing ponds by State Administration of Work Safety.