越南石油生产和出口形势变化及其对中国的影响

对近年来越南原油和油品生产形势的变化以及未来将对中国的石油进出口产生的影响进行了探讨.越南石油产量自20世纪80年代后期起快速上升,至2006年达到峰值后迅速下降.越南为改变油品几乎全依靠进口的状况,近年来着手大力兴建炼厂,因而石油进出口形势将发生逆转.预计越南2013年后就可成为原油净进口国(进口量可达3×107～5×107t)且将大量出口油品.此外,越南还积极谋求其油气上游业务在国外的发展.随着越南向原油进口国、油品出口国的转变,不仅对中国的石油进、出口有一定的影响,也会对亚太地区(特别是东盟10国)的石油形势有较大的影响,使他们在原油市场、油品市场和国际石油勘探开发市场上都多了一个竞争者和潜在的合作伙伴.

Oil production & export trend of Vietnam and its influence on China

This article discusses about the Vietnam production trend of crude oil and oil products in recent years, and the potential influence on Chinese oil import and export in the future. The oil production rate of Vietnam rose rapidly as of the late 1980s, and declined rapidly after reaching the peak value in 2006. Recently, in order to change the situation that almost all the oil products depend on import, Vietnam has built a lot of refineries. As a result, the oil import & export trend will reverse. It is estimated that after 2013, Vietnam will become a net crude oil importer (with import volume of 3×107-5×107 t) and will export a lot of oil products. In addition, Vietnam also pursues overseas development of upstream oil-gas business. As Vietnam changes to a crude oil importer and oil product exporter, not only will Chinese oil import & export be impacted to certain extent, but also the oil situation of Asia-pacific area (particularly the ten ASEAN countries) will be impacted greatly. As a result, these countries will have another competitor and potential partner in the crude oil market, oil product market and international oil exploration & development market.