A disaggregate Box-Cox Logit mode choice model of intercity passenger travel in Germany and its implications for high-speed rail demand forecasts |
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| Authors: | Benedikt Mandel Marc Gaudry Werner Rothengatter |
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| Affiliation: | Centre de recherche sur les transports, Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128, succursale A, Montréal, Canada H3C 3J7, CA
Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung der Universit?t Karlsruhe (TH), Kollegium am Schlo?, Bau IV, Postfach 6980, D-76128 Karlsruhe, Germany, DE
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| Abstract: | We show that enriching logit mode choice model specification by mode attributes, socio economic variables and trip purpose characteristics significantly improves model quality, and that Box-Cox transformations applied to model attributes imply an asymmetry of the reaction curve, as well as more reasonable properties (diminishing marginal values of time savings, elasticities and values of time that differ among the modes) than those of the linear logit model. Moreover, the model yielded very different high speed rail market shares for Germany than results obtained with the usual linear utility functions. Received: December 1996 / Accepted: April 1997 |
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