贸易便利化服务质量、技术水平对居民福利的门槛效应

从贸易便利化服务质量和贸易便利化技术水平两方面解构贸易便利化,研究贸易便利化对居民福利的门槛效应。基于两国两部门模型的理论分析表明:受规制成本影响的贸易便利化服务质量对居民福利存在门槛效应,而受市场竞争强度影响的贸易便利化技术水平通过对贸易便利化服务质量的反向效应,对居民福利形成门槛效应。利用世界银行和世界经济论坛发布的2008-2018年全球数据,采用面板门槛模型的实证结果与理论分析相符:贸易便利化服务质量对居民人均支出存在单门槛,而贸易便利化技术水平通过影响贸易便利化服务质量对居民人均收入形成双门槛;贸易便利化服务质量对居民支出的影响更易被贸易便利化技术水平高的国家取得;进一步做替换测度变量、调整测度样本和变量内生性的稳健性检验,结果依然显著。

The Threshold Effect of the Service Quality and the Technical Level of Trade Facilitation on the Welfare of the Residents

This paper deconstructs trade facilitation from the two perspectives of service quality and technology level, so as to study the threshold effect of trade facilitation on the welfare of the residents. The theoretical analysis based on the two nation two sector model shows that the service quality of trade facilitation affected with regulatory costs has a threshold effect on the welfare of the residents, while the technology level of trade facilitation affected by the intensity of market competition has a threshold effect on the welfare of residents through the negative effect on the service quality of trade facilitation. Using the global data of 2008-2018 released by the World Bank and the World Economy Forum, the empirical study of the panel threshold model produces results that are consistent with the theoretical analysis. There exists a single threshold for the improvement of social welfare through the government regulation mechanism, while there exist two thresholds for the improvement of social welfare through the market competition mechanism. The impact of trade facilitation service quality on the improvement of social welfare is more easily achieved in countries with a high level of trade facilitation technology. Further tests on the substitution of measurement variables, the selection of measurement samples and the robustness of endogenous variables show that the results are all still significant.