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基于灰色马尔可夫模型的某企业事故伤亡研究
引用本文:陈早阳,陈玉明. 基于灰色马尔可夫模型的某企业事故伤亡研究[J]. 矿冶, 2014, 23(3): 43-45
作者姓名:陈早阳  陈玉明
作者单位:昆明理工大学 国土资源工程学院,昆明理工大学 国土资源工程学院
摘    要:煤矿企业安全问题一直是国家安全生产的首要问题。每年各类煤矿事故的死亡人数不断攀升,安全形势日趋恶化。在此引入灰色系统理论中的GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫模型相结合的方式对企业的事故伤亡情况进行预测分析,可提前知晓事故发生频率,对未来趋势做出科学的预测,以便为企业下一步的安全决策提供判断依据,减少处理未来安全事件的盲目性,预防并阻止事故的发生。

关 键 词:事故伤亡  煤矿安全  灰色预测  马尔可夫模型
收稿时间:2013-01-24
修稿时间:2013-02-16

Search of the Enterprise Injuries and Deaths Based on Grey Markov Model
CHEN Zao-yang and CHEN Yu-ming. Search of the Enterprise Injuries and Deaths Based on Grey Markov Model[J]. Mining & Metallurgy, 2014, 23(3): 43-45
Authors:CHEN Zao-yang and CHEN Yu-ming
Affiliation:Faculty of Land and Resource Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Faculty of Land and Resource Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology
Abstract:The safety problems of coal mining enterprises have been the most important issue of national safety production,the number of coal mining deaths is rising each year, The safety situation is getting worse. This paper combines the theory of gray system model GM (1,1) and Markov model,then analyses the accident casualties, predicts the frequency of accidents. So that this method provides the basis to judge the safety decisions for the enterprise, manages to block and prevent accidents.
Keywords:Injuries and deaths  Mine safety  The grey prediction model  Markov model
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