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EFFICIENT ESTIMATION OF NONSTATIONARY TIME SERIES REGRESSION
Authors:A. C. Harvey   P. M. Robinson
Affiliation:London School of Economics and Political Science
Abstract:Abstract. A multiple time series regression model with trending regressors has residuals that are believed to be not only serially dependent but nonstationary. Assuming the residuals can be decomposed as a stationary autoregressive process of known order multiplied by an unknown time-varying scale factor, we propose estimators of the regression coefficients and show them to be as efficient as estimators based on known scale factors. Our estimators have features in common with adaptive estimators proposed by Carroll (1982) and Hannan (1963) for different regression problems, involving respectively independent residuals with heteroskedasticity of unknown type, and stationary residuals with unknown serial dependence structure.
Keywords:Time series regression    nonstationarity    serial correlation    heteroskedasticity    efficient estimation    adaptive estimation    nonparametric curve fitting
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