地震预测的新进展

临震预测是指对未来10 d内将发生地震的时间、地点、震级的预测.采用多学科多种观测方法进行临震预测,可以预测地震发震时间、地点和震级中的一二个要素,综合多种前兆异常信息,做出临震预测.其中,准确地预报了1996年包头M_s6.4级地震、1997-04新疆伽师地区Ms6.3-6.6级强震群、2000-07日本伊豆群岛 M_s6.4级地震和2001-12-18台湾Ms7.5级地震等.其独到之处在于可以预测发生在距观测点几千km以外的强地震,在这一世界性难题上实现了创造性的突破.本文对2003年以来的年度预测及临震预测,按照评分标准进行了评定和总结.

Some Advance in Earthquake Prediction

Imminent earthquake prediction is to determine the three elements, when, where and the magnitude of an earthquake that would happened in 10 days. The institute has made those predictions continuously for more than 20 years by using multidiscipline observing method. Currently the method can predict one or two elements of the three by synthesizing all observed abnormal indictors. The successful predictions include Baotou Ms6.4 earthquake in 1996, Xinjiang Jiashi Ms6.3-6.6 strong group earthquake in 1997, Japan Yi-dou Island Ms6.4 in 2000, Taiwan Ms 7.5 in 2001. Some breakthrough were made in predicting earthquakes bursting several thousands miles away, which had been regarded as a world wide difficult problem. This paper presented, assessed and summarized some yearly and imminent prediction from 2003 according to the specific grade standard.