GM（1，1）模型在地表沉降预测中的应用

在城建中基坑开挖所带来的基坑周边地表沉降预测缺乏成熟的计算理论。结合南京某地铁车站基坑开挖工程,通过灰色理论中的GM(1,1)模型对基坑开挖所引起的周边地表沉降进行预测,并与实测值进行对比,结果表明,运用GM(1,1)模型,尤其是改进的GM(1,1)模型,利用初期沉降实测值来预测未来一定时间内的沉降量能够获得比较精确的预测结果。

Application Of GM(1,1) Model in Forecast of Earth's Surface Deformation

There are no mature calculating theories to predict the deformation of earth's surface in the deep excavation in the city construction.Taking a certain Nanjing subway station as an example,the paper predicts the earth's surface deformation in the deep excavation through the GM(1,1)model in the grey system,and compares the forecasting value with the surveying value.The conclusion shows that with the help of the initial deformation value,the deformation value in the near future stage will be more precisely predicted by using GM(1,1)model,especially the improved GM(1,1)model.