基于SNA视角的绿色建筑项目风险网络构建与评价研究

目前，工程风险研究中多数将风险因素看作孤立的点，缺乏从风险因素内在相互关系角度对风险展开整体研究。首先识别出绿色建筑项目的26项风险因素，从全生命周期和利益相关者二维视角进行归类，基于问卷调查结合一致性分析方法辨识风险因素之间的相互影响关系，据此构建风险网络邻接矩阵。其次，利用社会网络分析方法中的块模型进行整体和个体网络分析，获得风险网络中居于核心地位的风险因素；进一步利用线的中间中心度识别网络中关键关系。最后，有针对性地提出控制核心风险和关键关系的措施，并利用整体网络密度、聚集系数、图的中间中心势和可达矩阵的可达数量等指标对风险管理效果进行检测。结果显示：对核心风险和关键关系进行控制管理，可有效阻断风险在网络中的传导，整个风险网络的复杂度和节点联系的紧密度均有明显降低，网络中某一关键风险引发导致整个绿色建筑项目失败的可能性大大降低。研究重点关注了绿色建筑项目风险网络关联关系，成果可为项目管理者提供新的风险管理思路。

Study on establishment and evaluation of risk network in green building projects based on SNA

Different from the previous researches on risks in construction engineering that consider the risks isolatedly, this paper investigates the risks from the perspectives of inner-interactions between risk factors. Firstly, 26 risk factors were identified and then classified from based on the life cycles and stakeholders of green buildings. Questionnaire survey and consensus analysis were used to identify the interactions between risk factors, and the risk network adjacency matrix was built. Secondly, the block models from Social Network Analysis (SNA) were used to carry out to identify the key risk factors by overall network analysis and the individual network analysis. Then, the risk interactions in the network were identified according to the line centrality. Finally, the measures to control the key risk factors and the important risk interactions were proposed, and the overall network density, clustering coefficient, indicator of image betweenness centrality and reachable matrix were used to test the effect of the risk management. The results show that the transmission of risk in the network can be effectively blocked by managing the key risk factors and the key interactions. The complexity of the entire risk network, the degree of node connection and the possibility of the failure of green building projects caused by certain key risks can also be reduced. The research results can provide reference for risk management from a different perspective.