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On generalised asymmetric stochastic volatility models
Authors:Georgios Tsiotas
Affiliation:
  • Department of Economics, University of Crete, Panepistimioupolis, Rethymnon 74100, Greece
  • Abstract:Stochastic volatility (SV) models have been considered as a real alternative to time-varying volatility of the ARCH family. Existing asymmetric SV (ASV) models treat volatility asymmetry via the leverage effect hypothesis. Generalised ASV models that take account of both volatility asymmetry and normality violation expressed simultaneously by skewness and excess kurtosis are introduced. The new generalised ASV models are estimated using the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach for parametric and log-volatility estimation. By using simulated and real financial data series, the new models are compared to existing SV models for their statistical properties, and for their estimation performance in within and out-of-sample periods. Results show that there is much to gain from the introduction of the generalised ASV models.
    Keywords:Stochastic volatility   Leverage effect   Noncentral-  mmlsi113"   class="  mathmlsrc"   onclick="  submitCitation('/science?_ob=MathURL&  _method=retrieve&  _eid=1-s2.0-S0167947311002489&  _mathId=si113.gif&  _pii=S0167947311002489&  _issn=01679473&  _acct=C000051805&  _version=1&  _userid=1154080&  md5=47b30f1fa1e4f0f31581c7ba551c43d2')"   style="  cursor:pointer  "   alt="  Click to view the MathML source"   title="  Click to view the MathML source"  >  formulatext"   title="  click to view the MathML source"  >t distribution   Skew-normal distribution   Skew-  mmlsi114"   class="  mathmlsrc"   onclick="  submitCitation('/science?_ob=MathURL&  _method=retrieve&  _eid=1-s2.0-S0167947311002489&  _mathId=si114.gif&  _pii=S0167947311002489&  _issn=01679473&  _acct=C000051805&  _version=1&  _userid=1154080&  md5=587cc3f999676946386c52e58b4de301')"   style="  cursor:pointer  "   alt="  Click to view the MathML source"   title="  Click to view the MathML source"  >  formulatext"   title="  click to view the MathML source"  >t distribution   Metropolis-Hastings   MCMC   DIC   Model selection   Forecasting evaluation
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