水资源约束下城市需水量预测研究

在分析需水量预测和水资源约束的基础上,本文探讨了水资源约束的量化指标。提出城市需水量预测应和水资源约束结合,并将水资源约束系数引入需水量预测中。应用BP网络,建立了水资源约束下的城市需水量预测模型。本文以郑州市为例,应用预测模型进行需水量预测,并对预测结果进行了分析。结果表明:本文建立的模型具有一定的实用价值,为区域的发展规划、供水工程规划以及节水规划提供更科学的依据。

Research on predication of urban water demand under water resources constraint

Based on the analysis of water demand predication and water resources constraint, this paper investigated the quantification indicator of water resources constraint. It put forward that the forecast of urban water demand should be combined with the water resources constraint.The coefficient of water resources constraint was introduced to the predication of water demand. The paper set up the prediction model of urber water demand under water resources constraint by using BP network.Taking Zhengzhou for examble,it applied the model to predict the water demand and analyzed the result of predicttion. The results indicated that the model has certain practical value and can provide scientific basis for the plan of zone development,the scheme of water supply project and water saving.