基于ARIMA模型的游客人数分析与预测

通过确定ARIMA模型参数，建立预测中国国内游游客人数的预测模型，为中国未来旅游人数预测提供参考。首先选取1994-2015年的国内游游客人数作为训练数据，判断时间序列是否平稳，若不平稳则进行平稳性处理；然后确定模型参数，建立预测模型；最后按照构建好的ARIMA模型对2016-2018年的国内游游客人数进行预测。实验表明，ARIMA模型能较好地对国内游游客人数进行预测。

Analysis and Prediction of the Number of Tourists Based on ARIMA Model

By determining the parameters of the ARIMA model, the prediction model of the number of Chinese domestic tourists is established to provide a reference for the prediction of the number of future tourism in China. First of all, the number of domestic tourists from 1994 to 2015 is selected as the training data to judge whether the time series is stable. Otherwise，the stationary processing will be carried out. Then the model parameters are determined and the prediction model is established. Finally, the number of domestic tourists from 2016 to 2018 is predicted according to the established ARIMA model. Experiments show that ARIMA model can predict the number of domestic tourists well.