Safety prediction in nuclear power

The practical operational safety of nuclear objects is of fundamental importance for assessing the future prospects under discussion and selecting a strategy for the development of nuclear power. It is shown that the methods currently being used for making safety predictions do not contain an analysis of the unavoidable errors and uncertainties of the models used or the initial and boundary conditions under which the physical processes that develop into serious accidents arise and develop. It is proposed that the method of quantile estimates of the uncertainties, which is free of the drawbacks of the Monte Carlo method and which increases the reliability of safety predictions in nuclear power, be used. __________ Translated from Atomnaya énergiya, Vol. 102, No. 2, pp. 80–86, February, 2007.