煤炭需求预测方法及应用

以中国北方某市2008—2014年煤炭消费量、地区生产总值及人口等统计数据为基础，分别采用回归模型、使用强度模型、灰色模型对该地区煤炭消费量进行了模拟和预测。基于各模型十分离散的预测结果，引入了资源需求理论，对该地区资源需求变化趋势进行分析，同时对各模型预测精度进行评估，从而确定适用于该地区的资源需求预测模型。结果显示，回归模型预测结果优于其他两种模型，同时也表明资源需求理论指导下的煤炭消费量需求预测更具科学性，为煤炭需求预测模型的选取提供方法和依据。

Forecasting method of coal demand and its application

Based on the coal consumption data，GDP and population data of the city of northern China during 2008—2014，the coal consumption in this area was simulated and predicted using regression model，strength model and grey model. As the result of the prediction is very discrete，to analyze the trends of the resource demand，the paper introduced the theory of resource requirements，according to this theory and the result of the forecasting，the applicable forecasting model was confirmed. The results show that，the regression model is better than the other two models. It also shows that the forecasting method of coal consumption under the guidance of the theory of resource requirements is scientific. The paper provides a method and basis for the model selection.