基于常见供水格局的水库群供水预警及响应策略研究

随着区域经济社会发展对用水量需求的增加,区域内逐渐形成多水库供水格局。本文针对一种常见的水库群供水格局开展供水预警研究,给出供水预警含义、预警指标及预警线形式、分级分期预警指标阈值确定方法和预警响应策略等。以缺水区域缺水量最小为目标,提出以水库蓄水量为控制指标的分级分期预警体系:即划定不同等级预警线,按照不同分期对预警线进行细化;基于长系列逆时序法供需计算确定预警指标;依据水库预警线确定水库群调水和供水规则,实现多水库联合调度。并以永康市三座中型水库组成的水库群为例,进行水库区供水预警及响应策略的实际应用。研究成果为水库调度决策部门提供了新的调度思路,为干旱期水库群供水运行管理提供依据。

Research on early warning of water supply and response strategy for the Reservoir group based on the common water supply pattern

With the rapid development of regional eco-society, the water security accordingly needs to be improved. In this paper, early warning system of reservoir water supply is carried out for a reservoir. We gave the meaning of water supply warning, warning index, the form of early warning line, and the method to determine index value and response strategy. In order to minimize the shortage of water supply,the early warning system of reservoir storage capacity under classification-staging was put forward. First, we gave early-warning line of different levels, and grouped early warning line by considering different water period. Then, the early warning index is determined based on the calculation results of the long series by inverse time sequence method. Finally, we determined the rnulti-reservoir water transfer and supply rules according to the reservoir early warning line. Taking Yongkang City as an example, this paper supplied the calculation and application process by using warning lines. The results of the paper provided a new idea for the decision-making departments of reservoirs, and offered the basis for water supply and management of reservoir groups.