粤港澳大湾区外商直接投资对制造业集聚的空间溢出效应

湾区以其丰富的自然资源禀赋和独特的开放优势在带动全球经济发展和技术进步中发挥着重要作用，通过外商直接投资溢出效应实现湾区制造业集聚发展，已经成为引领湾区经济开放化和多元化的重要途径。采用区位熵方法测算了2010—2019年粤港澳大湾区各城市制造业及其细分行业集聚度，并通过SEM和SDM模型分析了外商直接投资对制造业集聚的影响效应。研究发现：1）粤港澳大湾区产业分工明晰，产业集聚特征明显。2）粤港澳大湾区外商直接投资对制造业集聚存在明显的空间外溢效应，在邻接矩阵和经济地理矩阵下影响系数分别为0.213和0.121；市场规模和技术创新对本地制造业集聚的影响系数为0.063和0.316，促进了本地制造业发展；资本存量对周边地区制造业集聚产生积极的促进作用，影响系数为0.918。发挥粤港澳大湾区的产业集群的优势，有利于为广东地区乃至整个泛珠三角产业均衡化发展提供引领作用。

SPATIAL SPILLOVER EFFECT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON MANUFACTURING AGGLOMERATION IN GUANGDONG-HONG KONG-MACAO GREAT BAY AREA

Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macro Great Bay Area (the Great Bay) plays a vital role in leading the global economy and technical advances by its abundant natural resources and featured openness. The overflow effect of foreign direct investment can realize the manufacturing agglomeration in the Great Bay, which has become a key path to the Great Bay's openness and diversification. This paper uses locality entropy to estimate the agglomeration of the Great Bay's manufacturing and its detailed industries during 2010 to 2019 and applies SEM and SDM to study the impacts of foreign direct investment on manufacturing agglomeration. Results show that the Great Bay has specific industrial division and notable industrial agglomeration. Here foreign direct investment has a remarkable spatial overflow effect on manufacturing agglomeration with impact coefficients at 0.213 and 0.121 under neighboring matrix and economic geographical matrix, respectively. Market size and technical innovation have impacting coefficients at 0.063 and 0.316 on the local manufacturing agglomeration, boosting the local manufacturing. Capital stock promotes the neighboring manufacturing agglomeration with an impacting coefficient at 0.918. This paper concludes that advantages of the Great Bay's industrial agglomeration can lead a balanced development for the entire Guangdong province or even for the global Zhu Delta area's industries.