基于AHP-CRITIC变权物元可拓模型的南水北调东线一期工程水源地生态补偿绩效评价

随着生态环境保护意识越来越强，健全生态补偿机制的战略地位也越来越重要，其中生态补偿绩效评价体系对生态补偿标准的确定与生态补偿机制的完善具有重要的战略意义。【研究目的】通过对南水北调东线一期工程水源地当前的生态补偿绩效进行评价，并基于当前的绩效评价结果测算水源地生态补偿资金标准，为南水北调东线一期工程水源地生态补偿机制的完善提供参考。【研究方法】通过构建水源地生态补偿绩效评价指标体系，运用AHP\|CRITIC法得出综合权重，结合变权物元可拓模型，动态评价南水北调东线一期工程水源地目前的绩效结果，并运用成本法与生态服务价值法，通过水源地占比系数、供水系数与政策重要性系数进行修正，计算得出水源地生态补偿资金标准区间，并进一步进行水源地生态补偿绩效评价定性分析。【研究结果】南水北调东线一期工程水源地目前绩效评价等级变量特征值为3.699 34；生态补偿资金标准区间为9 693.00，14 559.75]，其中分配到扬州、宿迁、淮安、徐州4市的资金标准区间分别为2 011.50，3 368.25]、2 787.75，3 327.75]、3 732.75，5 157.00]、1 161.00，2 706.75]（单位：万元）。【研究结论】水源地目前绩效评价等级为良，且偏向于优，说明江苏省水源地的生态环境保护效果较好，但仍有进步空间；水源地的生态补偿资金标准区间为0.97亿～1.46亿元，其中分配到淮安的生态补偿资金最高，分配到徐州的生态补偿资金最低；生态补偿资金的注入使得评价指标均向好发展，其生态补偿绩效结果必然优于目前的绩效结果。水源地实行生态补偿将会促进水源地生态环境保护、经济发展与民生改善，以及进一步践行“绿水青山就是金山银山”的发展理念，实现人与自然的和谐发展。

ECOLOGICAL COMPENSATION PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF SOUTH-WATER-NORTH-SHIFT PHASE I WATER SOURCE BASED ON AHP-CRITIC WEIGHT-VARIABLE MATTER-ELEMENT EXTENSION MODEL

Ecological compensation performance evaluation is a key to determination of ecological compensation standard and to optimization of ecological compensation mechanism. This paper, aiming at evaluating ecological compensation performance of south-water-north-shift phase I water source, and based on the ecological compensation capital standard, provides references for improving ecological compensation mechanism. This paper uses APH-CRITIC weight-variable matter-element extension model by establishing evaluation index system of water resource ecological compensation, and studies dynamically its performance through ecological compensation standard of water source on which costs method, ecological servicing values, water source proportion coefficient, water supply coefficient, and policy importance coefficient. The typical variable value of performance evaluation level of south-water-north-shift phase I water source is 3.699 34, with standard range of ecological compensation capital 9 693.00, 14 559.75 (10 k RMB)], of which 2 011.50, 3 368.25] distributed to Yangzhou, 2 787.75, 3 327.75] to Shuqian, 3 732.75, 5 157.00] to Huaian and 1 161.00, 2 706.75] to Xuzhou. The performance level for water source is rated at good+, suggesting a good environmental protection in water source. The standard range of ecological compensation capital for water source is RMB97 to 146 million, of which Huaian receives the most, Xuzhou receives the least. Input of ecological compensation capital improves the evaluation indexes with a better performance. Ecological compensation in water source will boost eco-environmental protection, economic growth and livelihood, and further practices the concept of "green-water-green-mountain as gold-mountain-silver-mountain" to reach a harmonious development of human and nature.