中国有色金属产业结构升级演进研究

基于已有文献，运用产业结构超前系数、Moore结构变化值、产业结构年均变动值以及产业结构升级高度值构建了反映产业结构升级方向、速率和程度的测算模型，测算了有色金属产业在产量追赶（1986—2001年）、规模快速扩张（2002—2011年）、转型发展（2012—2015年）和高质量发展（2016—2019年）4个阶段的产业结构升级演进情况。研究表明：（1）采选业超前系数在各个阶段逐步降低，冶炼及压延加工业超前系数则逐步上升。（2）有色金属产业在各个阶段的Moore值均接近于1；向量夹角值在前3个阶段呈现下降趋势，升级速度趋缓，第四阶段明显增加；向量夹角年均变化值前3个阶段比较稳定，第四阶段增速较快，远高于前3个阶段；产业结构年均变动值前2个阶段较稳定，第三阶段转型发展增速缓慢，第四阶段供给侧改革后有了新提升并维持在一定的水平。（3）采选业升级高度值在各个阶段有增减变化，处于动态调整状态；冶炼及压延加工业升级高度值保持持续增长趋势，有色金属产业后端升级效果更为显著。

A Study on the Industrial Structure Upgrading Evolution of Non-ferrous Metal in China

The non-ferrous metal industry as a strategic and basic raw material has made great progress in the past 30 years for deepening reform and opening-up in China，but it is worth paying attention to the effect of industrial structure upgrading，especially before and after the supply-side reform.To better understand the process and effect of the upgrading of China’s non-ferrous metal industrial structure since the Seventh Five-Year Plan in 1986，based on the data from 1986 to 2019 of non-ferrous metal，this paper used the advanced coefficient，Moore structure change value，annual average change value and upgrade height value of industrial structure to construct a calculation model which reflects the direction，rate and degree of industrial structure upgrading.The industrial structure upgrading evolution of non-ferrous metal were calculated in four stages of output catch-up（1986—2001），rapid scale expansion（2002—2011），transformation and development （2012—2015） and high quality development（2016—2019）.The results show that the leading coefficient of mining and processing industry is decreasing in every stage，and the leading coefficient of smelting and pressing industry is increasing.The Moore value of the non-ferrous metal industry is close to 1 in all stages，the vector angle value shows a downward trend in the first three stages，the speed of upgrading slows down，then in the fourth stage increases obviously.The annual variation value of the vector angle is relatively stable in the first three stages，in the fourth stage the growth rate is faster than that in the first three stages.The average annual change value of industrial structure is relatively stable in the first two stages，the transformation and development in the third stage are slow，and after the supply-side reform，the average annual change value in the fourth stage has a new upgrade and remains at a certain level.The elevation value of the mining and processing industry has increased and decreased in various stages，and has been dynamically adjusted.The elevation value of the smelting and pressing industry has maintained a growing trend，and the non-ferrous metal industry has been upgraded more effectively.The conclusions of this paper are as follows：（1）After the supply-side reform，the over development of the non-ferrous metal industry has been effectively restrained，and the non-ferrous metal industry has been upgraded from low value-added to high value-added.（2）Over the past 30 years，the upgrading of the industrial structure of the non-ferrous metal industry has generally been in the process of optimization and upgrading，and the effect of supply-side reform has been remarkable.（3）The front end of the mining and selection industry is undergoing reform and adjustment，and the upgrading degree of the back end of the smelting and processing industry is rising rapidly，and take it to the next level.Research enlightenment：（1）From the direction of industrial upgrading，it is necessary to strengthen the mechanism of market capacity reduction and take effective measures to speed up the transformation and upgrading of smelting and calendering industries，this is significant for backend applications.（2）From the rate of industrial upgrading，adhering to the demand-oriented principle，we should accelerate the replacement of production capacity and the elimination of backward production capacity，raise labor productivity，and enhance the ability of processing enterprises to meet user needs quickly at low cost.We should intensify efforts to develop overseas resources for urgently needed mineral resources，provide more time for domestic supply-side reform.（3）From the perspective of industrial upgrading，we should strengthen scientific and technological innovation，improve the level of intensive processing，improve product quality，scientific and technological content，focus on the process to intelligent，flexible，refined and green.