尾矿坝风险评估中指标相关性权重的确定

针对现有尾矿坝风险评估方法未考虑监测指标间的相关性造成的评估过程中计算重复的问题,考虑监测指标间的相关性并将其转化为权重,使相关性的指标中占主导地位的指标权具有较小的权值,反之亦然,从而降低重复计算问题。采用综合赋权法确定权重的方法为:根据监测指标间相互影响程度不同的特点,建立影响矩阵,由于该矩阵所需专家信息具有模糊性,故采用梯形模糊数描述专家信息,计算主观权重;根据各指标监测数据具有随机、模糊等不确定性的特点,利用可能性分布对其进行表征,进而采用相关系数赋权法计算得到各指标客观权重;通过均值法综合主、客观权重。实例表明,考虑了监测指标相关性的权重确定法能减少风险评估中指标的重复计算,综合主客观权重,为尾矿坝各指标赋权提供了理论依据。

Determining of Correlation Weights of Index in the Tailing Dam Risk Assessment

To solve the problem that the present risk assessment method of tailings dam does not consider the correlation between monitoring indexes resulting in double calculation during the evaluation process，the correlation between the monitoring indexes is considered and converted them into weights，so that the dominant index had the smaller weight，and vice versa.So the problem of double counting can be lowered.An integrated weighting method was used to determine the weights:according to the characteristics that monitoring indexes has different influence on each other，an influencing matrix is established.As the experts information required in the matrix is fuzzy，the trapezoidal fuzzy number is used to describe experts information and to calculate the subjective weights；With features of fuzziness and randomness，the monitoring data are represented by possibility distributions，then the correlation coefficient weighting method was used to calculate the objective weight of every index；Subjective weight and objective weight are integrated by the mean method.Example results show that:the weight calculation method that considers the coefficient of monitoring indexes can reduce duplication in risk assessment，and integrate subjective and objective weights.This method provides the theoretical basis for weighting of each index for tailings dam.