电动车的大规模发展依然任重道远

随着全球气候变暖和生态环境恶化等问题加剧,近几年全球电动车产业得到了快速发展。随之而来的"石油消费峰值论""石油时代终结论"甚嚣尘上。发展电动车的本质是一次能源转型,即从化石能源的直接使用转向使用清洁能源。但是,电动车的发展,目前除自身技术特别是电池的续航里程、充电速度、电池回收等短期难以实现重大突破之外,关键是受到资源约束(清洁能源资源和锂、钴等电池原料资源),资源条件决定了电动车的发展速度。即使电动车将来大规模普及,也只能实现对汽油车的替代,重型机械、车辆、船舶、飞机等是很难替代的,未来中长期电机将与内燃机驱动并存,各类能源将长期共存发展,电动车的大规模发展依然任重道远。

Large-scale Development of Electric Vehicles Still a Long Arduous Task

With aggravated problems such as global warming and deteriorated ecological environment,global electric vehicle industry has developed rapidly in recent years.Subsequently,"oil consumption peak theory"and"petroleum age termination theory"cause a temporary clamor.The nature of developing electric vehicles is an energy transformation from direct use of fossil energy to use of clean energy.But,the development of electric vehicles,besides its own technology,especially for battery's distance per charge,charging rate and battery recycling,being difficult to realize great breakthrough in a short time at present,is crucially restrained by resources(clean energy resources and battery material resources such as lithium and cobalt),thus resources condition determines the development speed of electric vehicles.Even if electric vehicles will be popularized on a large scale in future,only the substitution of gasoline cars can be realized,but heavy machinery,trucks,ships and airplanes are still difficult to be electrified.In the mid-long term,electric motors and internal combustion motors will both exist,and every kinds of energy will co-exist and develop in a long term,so large-scale development of electric vehicles is still an arduous task and the road is long.