零售生鸡肉中沙门菌污染对居民健康影响的暴露评估

目的评估零售生鸡肉中沙门菌污染的健康风险及其潜在的干预措施。方法利用零售生鸡肉中沙门菌定量监测数据以及零售和家庭生鸡肉储存加工专项调查结果,采用Monte Carlo概率评估方法,估计我国居民通过厨房内交叉污染发生鸡源性沙门菌食物中毒的风险,并评价潜在的干预措施效果。结果本研究构建了从零售到餐桌的生鸡肉-沙门菌交叉污染模型,模型估计生鸡肉经过零售储存、抵达居民家里和经过家庭储存后其沙门菌浓度(lg MPN/g)从零售前的-0.017,分别增长到2.163、2.241和3.028,估计我国居民每餐发生鸡源性沙门菌食物中毒的风险为0.171(95%置信区间:0.000~0.767),其中零售阶段生鸡肉的储存方式是影响发病风险的最重要因素(回归系数=0.72),情景分析提示,如果零售阶段采用冷冻或者冷藏储存,我国居民每餐发病风险可以降为0.031(95%置信区间:0.000~0.522)。结论我国居民鸡源性沙门菌食物中毒的风险较高,应当加强零售环节生鸡肉的冷链管理。

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment for Salmonella contamination in raw chicken from retail to table

To assess the health risk of Salmonella contamination in retail raw chicken, and provide potential interventions.Methods Combining quantitative monitoring data of Salmonella in retail raw chicken with specific survey results of storage and processing in retail and household, the risk of Salmonella poisoning through cross-contamination in the kitchen was estimated, and the effects of the potential interventions was evaluated using Monte Carlo stochastic assessment method. Results The cross-contamination model of raw chicken-Salmonella from retail to table was constructed in this study. During raw chicken retail storage, carriage and home storage, the model predicted that Salmonella concentration (lg MPN/g) of increased to 2.163,2.241 and 3.028 respectively from -0.017 in retail front. The model also estimated the chicken-Salmonella poisoning probability for Chinese residents is 0.17 (95%CI:0.000-0.767) per meal, and the most important risk factor was the storage methods in retail (regression coefficient=0.72). Scenario analysis suggested that, if the retail applied frozen or refrigerated storage, the risk could be reduced to 0.03 per meal (95%CI:0.000-0.522).Conclusion The risk of chicken-Salmonella poisoning was high in China, and cold chain management of raw chicken in retail chain should be strengthened.